67,000 CT Homes At Risk from Hurricane Storm Surges; State Ranks 14th Among States Under Threat

More than 6.8 million homes on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts are at potential risk of damage from hurricane storm surge inundation with a total reconstruction cost value of more than $1.5 trillion, according to a new analysis by CoreLogic.  Connecticut, which has felt the brunt of major east coast storms in recent years, ranks 14^th among the states in the potential damage from future storms, with more than 67,000 homes at risk of flood exposure. According to the analysis, nearly 7,000 Connecticut homes are at extreme risk from future storms, another 21,600 homes are at very high risk, and nearly 18,000 are at high risk, depending upon the severity of the storm.  In addition, just over 21,000 homes are seen as being of moderate risk.  In the analysis, a category 1-5 storm would place a structure at extreme risk, a category 2-5 storm at very high risk, a category 3-5 storm at high risk, and a category 4-5 storm would put a home at moderate risk.

Among neighboring states, Connecticut ranked behind Massachusetts, New York and New Jersey.

In addition to the number of homes at risk, the analysis also provides the reconstruction cost value (RCV), which is the cost to completely rebuild a property in case of damage, including labor and materials by geographic location, assuming a worst-case scenario at 100-percent destruction.  The analysis points out that the location of hurricanes that hit land is often a more important factor than the number of storms that may occur during the year.

At the state level, Texas and Florida, which have the longest coastal areas, consistently have more homes at risk than other states. Florida ranks first with 2.7 million at-risk homes across the five risk categories and Texas ranks third with 531,169 at-risk homes.  Since the number of homes at risk strongly correlates with the accompanying RCV, these two states rank first and fifth, respectively for having the largest RCV, according to the analysis.

The states with the most at-risk homes are Florida, Louisiana, Texas, New Jersey, New York, Virginia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Massachusetts, Georgia, Maryland, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and Delaware.

Rhode Island, Maine and New Hampshire ranked 17^th, 18^th and 19^th respectively.

The CoreLogic storm surge analysis, officials say, complements Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood zone information to provide a snapshot of potential damage exposure at the property level since many properties located outside designated FEMA flood zones are still at risk for storm surge damage.  The analysis examines risk from hurricane-driven storm surge for homes along the Atlantic and Gulf coastlines across 19 states and the District of Columbia, as well as for 88 metro areas.

“Using more granular-level data has given us an even clearer picture of which homes are at risk of storm surge damage,” said Dr. Tom Jeffery, senior hazard risk scientist for CoreLogic. “Despite the overall increases in risk, we were glad to see that the number and value of homes in the most extreme, and dangerous, category actually declined.”

At the regional level, the Atlantic Coast has just under 3.9 million homes at risk of storm surge with an RCV of $953 billion, and the Gulf Coast has just over 2.9 million homes at risk with $592 billion in potential exposure to total destruction damage.

When the states are ranked by the anticipated reconstruction cost value of the homes at risk, Connecticut ranks 12^th.

Among the nation’s major metropolitan areas, those with the most homes potentially affected by all categories of hurricane are Miami, New York Tampa, New Orleans, Virginia beach, Cape Coral, Houston, Bradenton, Naples, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Charleston, Boston, Myrtle Beach and Lafayette.

CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years.

The official hurricane season extends from June-November each year, but hurricanes are not limited to that timeframe.  The report indicates that most preseason forecasts to date have predicted an increase in both the total number of storms and the number of hurricanes in 2016, compared with the last three years. The storm predictions from Tropical Storm Risk, for example, show a 35 percent chance of this year being an above average season.

Insurance Department Recovers $6 Million for Policyholders, Taxpayers in 2015; Recoveries, Fines Both At 4-Year Low

The Connecticut Insurance Department recovered approximately $6 million for policyholders and taxpayers in 2015, helping individuals and families with their claims and complaints.  The total dollar amount of the recoveries declined for the third consecutive year, down from a high of $8.7 million in 2012, $7.4 million in 2013 and $6.3 million in 2014. Officials indicated that the Department’s Consumer Affairs Unit (CAU) fielded more than 6,100 complaints and inquiries and helped policyholders recoup more than $4 million from January 1 to December 31, 2015.  The number of complaints and inquiries dropped slightly from the previous year, when 6,500 were handled, recouping $4.3 million for policy owners.  In 2013, policyholders saw $4.7 million returned.  In 2012, the numbers were virtually identical to 2015.

“Behind these statistics are the individuals and families the Department was able to help through our intervention,” Commissioner Katharine L. Wade said. “In many cases we were able to make a real difference in their lives and I encourage anyone with questions or concerns about their insurance to contact the Department. We are here to help consumers.”

The department, in announcing the annual totals for 2015, also highlighted some individual recoveries, including:

• $27,000 for home health care services for a senior citizen under her long-term care policy
• $13,000 to pay for speech therapy for an autistic child
• $16,000 paid to a policyholder for an inpatient stay at a skilled nursing facility
• $37,000 in an additional payment to a homeowner to settle a claim

“Our staff makes certain that companies and agents comply with all state insurance laws and regulation and have extensive knowledge to answer a wide range of insurance questions,” the Commissioner said.

In addition to recoveries for policyholders, the Department’s Market Conduct division levied approximately $1.7 million in fines against carriers and returned that money to the state General Fund in 2015. The fines resulted from a variety of violations and settlements ranging from untimely claim payments to improper licensing. That was the lowest total for fines in recent years, perhaps signifying greater compliance.  In 2014, fines totaled $2.03 million, in 2013 the total was $2.7 million and in 2012 fines levied totaled $4.6 million.

The majority of the funds recovered for policyholders stemmed from complaints over health, accident, homeowners and life and annuities policies.

The following is the breakdown of funds recovered in 2015:

• Accident, Health - $2.7 million, compared with $2.5 million in 2014
• Auto - $430,000, compared with $381,000 in 2014
• General Liability - $17,200, compared with $65,000 in 2014
• Homeowners - $530,000, compared with $65,000 in 2014
• Life, Annuities - $294,000, compared with $330,000 in 2014

Recoveries in 2013 were largely focused on homeowners, as a result of Superstorm Sandy-related claims. Department recoveries in 2012 reflect the impact of claims from 2011 Storm Irene and the late October snow-filled Nor’easter that landed in Connecticut.

The Department calculates its consumer recoveries based on what the policyholder received as a result of the Department’s intervention. The inquiries and complaints also help the Department identify industry trends that may adversely affect consumers and trigger investigation by the Market Conduct division, officials said.

In addition, complaint data also help determine topics for consumer education and serve as tools to help the Department monitor the industry.  The Market Conduct enforcement actions are posted on the Department’s web site at www.ct.gov/cid

Mall Walking Is Alternative to Navigating Snow Banks, Frigid Temperatures

With wind chills hovering well below zero and snow and ice piled high just about everywhere, it is a tough season for joggers and walkers. The dangers of trudging along snow snarled streets is plainly evident, and every so often tragedy reminds us of the degree of danger. 

Just over two decades ago, at age 33, a local television reporter at the pinnacle of her career, a popular, talented reporter for New Haven’s WTNH, was killed after being struck by a car while jogging in mid-March.  Ellen Abrams was “facing traffic while jogging west on the side of snow-banked Frog Hollow Road in Ellington,” according to published reports at the time.

Tragically, it would not be the last fatality involving someone looking to get some exercise on local roads before the snow banks had receded.  Last month, police in Torrington reported that a jogger was fatally struck by a snowplow.

Through the years, individuals looking for a safe alternative to outside conditions have turned to area shopping malls in their prior-to-opening hours.  While jogging may not be favored, walking is certainly an option.  And winter’s unrelenting cold makes the alternative even more attractive.

Officials at Waterford’s Crystal Mall indicate that their mall walking program is year-round, and has been running for over 10 years.  They have approximately 20 regular participants, and doors open for the program at 8 a.m. Monday through Saturday and 10 a.m. on Sundays.  Advance sign-up is required, and people who are interested can easily sign up at Guest Services or the mall office during regular shopping hours.

At the Enfield Square Mall, early walking hours are Monday – Saturday at 8 a.m. and Sunday at 10 a.m.  While The Shoppes at Buckland Hills does not have a formal mall walker program; the mall is open two hours before stores open to shoppers (8 a.m. Monday-Saturday, 9 a.m. Sunday) year-round for walkers seeking a climate-controlled environment, officials say.

Westfarms Mall on the West Hartford-Farmington line opens for walkers at 7 a.m. Monday through Sunday.  Individuals should enter through the main entrance. Coat racks are conveniently located on the upper level near the Security Dispatch Desk.  At Westfarms, by walking completely around the upper level (including all corridors) you will have walked .76/mile, and by walking completely around the lower level (including all corridors) you will have walked .72/mile, according to the mall’s website.  The mall walkers club is sponsored by Hartford HealthCare, which presents informational seminars with HHC doctors and nurses.

More than twenty years after her death, Ellen Abrams is remembered at the University of Hartford each year with  the Ellen Abrams Memorial Scholarship, a $1,500 scholarship awarded annually to a deserving junior or senior Communication major with demonstrated financial need.  Her family continues to attend the awards ceremony, sharing her commitment to journalism with students receiving the scholarship in her name.

Two Sons of CT Use State University Program to Drive Local TV Meteorology Careers

Among the meteorologists reporting on the Blizzard of 2015 on Connecticut's local television stations are Dan Amarante and Sam Kantrow, who began their careers as student meteorologists-in-training at Western Connecticut State University and now can be seen on FOX Connecticut and NewsChannel 8.  Amarante has lived in Connecticut his entire life, growing up in Cheshire, and graduated from Western Connecticut State University with a Bachelor of Science in Meteorology. While at WCSU, he produced and anchored many school run weather broadcasts for the University’s website, as well as forecasts for the school’s radio station. Western Connecticut State University has the state's only meteorology program, which was run for many years by WTNH-TV meteorologist Dr. Mel Goldstein.  The WCSU website is chock full of charts and maps highlighting the latest conditions.The site includes the latest  Geostationary Satellite Images from the Space Science and Engineering Center at the University of Wisconsin and the National Weather Service radar mosaic Northeast Sector loop.  Greater detail is offered in Surface Charts from the National Weather Service and a series of Upper Air charts courtesy of Unisys Weather.  The school has a Weather Center, where students produce forecasts and work with clients while studying meteorology.

After college, Amarante got his start at WGGB ABC40/FOX6 in Springfield, MA, where he was the weekend weather anchor.  He is a Certified Broadcast Meteorologist, the highest certification from the American Meteorology Society.

Meteorologist Kantrow joined "Storm Team 8" on WTNH in February, 2011, first as weather producer and web meteorologist, and is now the on-air meteorologist for the weekend editions of Good Morning Connecticut.  Born and raised in Hamden, he is a graduate of WCSU and has a B.S. in Operational Meteorology and Weathercasting. Before coming to News 8, Kantrow interned at NBC Connecticut.  The WTNH website reports that "Sam’s weather interest began at a very young age, when the tornado that went through Hamden on July 10, 1989 narrowly missed his house! Ever since then, he has loved the weather, and anything about the weather. Sam grew up watching the meteorologists on News 8 and always wondered what it would be like to be in their shoes."

WCSU's Bachelor of Science in Meteorology is the only such program in Connecticut, and one of only a few in the Northeast. The university  has developed a foundation of courses in mathematics, computer science, physics, astronomy and earth science, combined with meteorology, to prepare you for television and radio weathercasting, operational forecasting, or for teaching or research in the atmospheric sciences.  Students in the bachelor's program  earn credits while performing TV/radio weathercasts or doing real-time forecasting for clients in the university's on-campus Weather Center, according to the WCSU website.

The program meets recommendations for an undergraduate meteorology degree program from the American Meteorological Society.  Additionally, students graduating with this B.S. Meteorology degree will have all the course requirements for entry level positions as a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, the single largest employer of meteorologists in the country.

The university also offers a graduate program - a Master of Arts in Earth and Planetary Science, Meteorology/Climatology Option.

Last October, WCSU hosted the 5th Annual Tri-State Weather Conference on campus in Danbury, presented by the university's Meteorology Program  and co-sponsored by the WestConn Student Chapter of the AMS, the New York City/Long Island Chapter of the AMS, NOAA/National Weather Service/Upton, N.Y and NOAA/National Weather Service/Taunton, MA.  The purpose of the conference was to enhance education, professional development and communication among private and public sector meteorologists, researchers, educators, students, emergency management officials, and weather enthusiasts.  Amarante, who joined FOX Connecticut in early 2011, was master of ceremonies for the conference at his alma mater.

The meteorology program at Western also includes among its graduates television meteorologists in a number of cities across the country. In addition to his work in Connecticut, Amarante has filled in as a weather producer at CBS 2 in New York City, and became snowed in at the station during the Blizzard of 2010.  Kantrow, who will be on-air reporting on the Blizzard of 2015 beginning at 3 AM on Tuesday, may find himself in similar circumstances, if forecasts for the day's snowfall come to fruition.

Will Blizzard of '78 Be Repeated in 2015?

Is Connecticut in for another Blizzard of ’78?  For those old enough to remember, there has been nothing like it since.  The blizzard shut down the state of Connecticut and much of New England - roads, businesses, schools, just about everything.  The legendary storm is not only vivid in memories - it has been the subject of a documentary on Connecticut Public Television, and has its own website, Blizzardof78.org, the work of amateur historian Matt Bowling. The website recalls that “in Connecticut, Governor Ella Grasso was trying to drive from the Governor’s Mansion to the state storm center in downtown Hartford.   She didn’t quite make it.  Forced to abandon her car and walk the remaining blocks to the state armory, Grasso was not slow in taking the storm seriously.  Thanks to (Massachusetts Governor Michael) Dukakis and Grasso, both state and National Guard troops would soon be on their way.”

Recalled former WTNH-TV newscaster Kenn Venit, “By Monday afternoon if you weren't home, you weren't going home." More than two feet blanketed the state, with drifts as much as eight times that height.

Gov. Grasso shut down the state for three days (including the interstate highways), and President Jimmy Carter declared Connecticut, Rhode Island and Massachusetts federal disaster areas, recalled The Hartford Courant in a retrospective published a year ago.   A contingent of 547 soldiers from Fort Hood, Texas, flew in to help National Guard crews clean up the mess and help the region slowly re-start daily routines that had been abruptly halted.

Snow fell at a rate of 4 inches an hour at times during the storm, which lasted for 36 hours, according to published reports. The unusual duration of the 1978 Nor’easter was caused by a Canadian high pressure system, which forced the storm to loop east and then back toward the north. Thunder, lightning and hail was seen in the blizzard as it blanketed the Northeast with over three feet of snow, and the shoreline was battered by high tides and hurricane force winds.

Two years ago, in early February 2013, a sizable blizzard rolled into New England which threatened to usurp the Blizzard of '78's place in the recent record books.  Despite heavy, sustained snowfall,  it didn't.

 Videos from CPTV and NBC News (with reports from John Chancellor, David Brinkley, Brian Ross and Robert Hager) highlight the Blizzard of  '78 in Connecticut.

http://youtu.be/ZDEl_kZw9EE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPdcFbbpaD4

Tri-State Weather Conference at WestConn Features Local Meteorologists

For weather experts and enthusiasts, all roads lead to Danbury on Saturday. The Fifth Tri-State Weather Conference will be held on from 8:45 a.m. to 5 p.m. in the Science Building on the mid-town campus of Western Connecticut State University on White Street in Danbury. The conference is presented by the Meteorology Program at Western Connecticut State University and co-sponsored by the WestConn Student Chapter of the American Meteorological Society (AMS), the New York City/Long Island Chapter of the AMS, NOAA/National Weather Service/Upton, N.Y and NOAA/National Weather Service/Taunton, MA.

The purpose of the conference is to enhance education, professional development and communication among private and public sector meteorologists, researchers, educators, students, emergency management officials, and weather enthusiasts.

Research posters highlighting high impact weather events that affected the Tri-State region of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut will be on display.

The master of ceremonies for the conference will be Lonnie Quinn, the chief weathercaster of CBS 2 News at 5, 6 and 11 p.m. weekdays. He also serves as the national weather anchor for “CBS This Morning” Saturday. Quinn is a native of Cheshire, who joined WCBS-TV in 2007 after a five year run at WTVJ in Miami.

Among the presenters at the conference will be Ryan Hanrahan, a Connecticut native from Guilford who joined the NBC Connecticut First Alert Weather Team in December 2005 and currently serves as the weekend evening meteorologist and as a general assignment reporter on weekdays. His interest in the weather was sparked by the 1989 Hamden tornado, hurricanes Gloria and Bob, along with the blizzards of '93 and '96, according to the station’s website.

Topics of presentations during the conference include:

Doppler Radar Signatures Associated with Connecticut Tornadoes 1995 – present. Ryan Hanrahan, NBC Connecticut – West Hartford, CT

Exploring Tri-State Climate Variability and Change Dr. David A. Robinson, New Jersey State Climatologist, Rutgers University

Hurricane Sandy - Boundary Layer Structure Affects on Winds and Storm Surge  Jeffrey S. Tongue, NOAA/National Weather Service, Upton, NY

NWS Weather Ready Nation initiative and how science is a critical and integral part Dr. Jason Tuelll, Director, Eastern Region NWS, Bohemia, NY

Operational Applications of GIS - The Development of A Flash Flood Potential Index for the Tri-State Area Nancy L. Furbush and Adrienne Leptich, NOAA/National Weather Service, Upton, NY

The GOES-R Satellite:  A New Eye in the Sky Eleanor Vallier-Talbot, NOAA/National Weather Service, Taunton, MA

Tornado Outbreak Quincy Vagell, Freelance Meteorologist – Naugatuck, CT

Tracking Hurricanes and Saharan Dust Storms from Space Jason Dunion, NOAA Hurricane Research Division in Miami, FL

Winter 14-15...Will Our Long Standing Ideas Win Out? Joe D'Aleo, Weatherbell Analytics LLC

Conference registrations are open to the public and may be submitted online atwww.wcsu.edu/weatherconference. The registration fee is $30 per person, and includes a continental breakfast, lunch and refreshments during breaks.

Quinn is not the only Cheshire native to handle weather forecasting on local television in the region.  The Western Connecticut campus is familiar turf for meteorologist Dan Amarante, who has been with FoxCT since January 2011.  He remembers being 8 years old and venturing outside during thunderstorms, much to his mother’s dismay, according to the station’s website. He spent a good chunk of his childhood reading weather books and watching tornado chasing videos.

Dan graduated from Western Connecticut State University with a Bachelor of Science in Meteorology. While at WCSU, he produced and anchored many school run weather broadcasts for the University’s website, as well as forecasts for the school’s radio station. After college, he began working at WGGB ABC40/FOX6 in Springfield, MA, where he was the weekend weather anchor. He also has filled in as a weather producer at CBS 2 in New York City, and became snowed in at the station during the Blizzard of 2010.

Hurricane Sandy: 3rd Costliest Insured Loss Catastrophe Worldwide Since 1970

Hurricane Sandy, which hit Connecticut and the Northeast in October 2012, produced the 3^rd costliest insured loss in the past 43 years, according to data compiled by Swiss Re and reported by Bloomberg. Half of the 15 costliest catastrophes since 1970 have occurred in the past 10 years.  The analysis methodology, going back to 1970,  reviewed loss including property and business interruption, excluding liability and life insurance losses.  It was released this week by Bloomberg Businessweek.

Hurricane Sandy was reported to have an insured loss of $36.9 billion.   The Federal Emergency Management Agency has reported that although New England was spared the brunt of the storm, residents and businesses along the shores of Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and New Hampshire suffered severe damages from wind and water, many losing homes and livelihoods.  New York and New Jersey were also hard-hit by the record-setting storm, which disrupted livelihoods, transportation and electricity grids and countless industries.

The top ranked insured lost was Hurricane Katrina, which catastrophically hit the Gulf Coast in August 2005, which losses estimated at $80.3 billion.  Next costliest was the earthquake which triggered a tsunami in Japan in March 2011, with an insured loss of $37.6 billion.  All loss amounts were indexed to 2013, for purposes of comparison.

Rounding out the top five costliest insured losses of nearly the past half-century were Hurricane Andrew, which hit Florida, neighboring states and the Bahamas in August 1992, with an insured loss of $27.6 billion and the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon on September 11, 2001, with insured losses of $25.6 billion.

Also ranked in the top 10 were the Northridge, California earthquake in 1994, Hurricane Ike in 2008, Hurricane Ivan in 2004, flooding in Thailand in 2011, and a New Zealand earthquake in 2011.

A September 2013 report by the U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration had estimated that the total payout by the insurance industry related to Hurricane Sandy was expected to be reduced because much of the storm damage was caused by the storm surge and subsequent flooding was not covered by standard homeowner or small business commercial policies. Also, reportedly half of all losses of the insurance industry were expected to be covered by reinsurers.  The report indicated that the Insurance Information Institute estimated that insurers would pay $18.75 to $25 billion to over 1.5 million policyholders across 15 states including Connecticut, and the District of Columbia.  More than two-thirds of claims were anticipated from homeowners, with the highest value of claims  from commercial property owners ($9 billion)accounting for almost half of the value of claims paid, the report indicated.

The insurance industry had its third-most expensive year on record in 2012, led by Hurricane Sandy, with global economic losses from natural catastrophes and man-made disasters totaling $186 billion, according to a previous report issued by Swiss Re.

Want a Snow Day off from School? It Takes Less Snow in Southern CT

The forecast calls for snow Sunday night into Monday morning, and with it comes the possibility of school cancellations.  Whether or not students receive a snow day – in Connecticut and across the country – has everything to do with where they live, more than the depth of the snowfall.

Connecticut, more than many states, seems to have varying standards across the state, if data recently published by the website flowingdata.com, based on a nationwide map developed using county-by-county data, is to be believed.

The data indicates how much snow, on average, it takes to close schools across the country.  Not surprisingly, in the northern states it takes quite a bit, while in the southern U.S. even the slightest snowfall can keep school children home.

In Connecticut, however, there appears to a less than uniform standard.  In the states’ southernmost counties – including Fairfield, New Haven, Middlesex and New London - it generally takes 3 - 6 inches of snow to close schools.  In the counties across the upper tier of the state – including Litchfield, Hartford, and Tolland, it takes 6 to 12 inches.

Windham Country, in the northeastern corner of the state, tends more toward the 3-6 inch line of demarcation.  State law in Connecticut  requires at least 180 school days per year, but individual districts—including those experiencing identical weather—often have vastly different ways of accommodating cancellations within the academic calendar.  A morning review of the school closing list on any of the major television stations demonstrates the inconsistencies beyond doubt.

The data does not account for ice storms and other winter conditions that can impact when local school superintendents decide to postpone a day’s school.  The data also does not reflect early dismissals or delayed arrivals due to weather conditions.

Across the nation, in much of the Midwest and Great Plains, school closing often depends more on wind chill and temperature than on snow accumulation. It has also been pointed out that school closures tend to say more about an area's infrastructure than the toughness of its citizens.  The recent impact on Atlanta and other Southern cities when hit with a relatively modest storm reflected that reality.

According to the Connecticut Department of Energy and Environmental Protection, the month of March brings, on average, 4.2 inches of liquid precipitation and 9.3 inches of snowfall.  In 1994, however, a record 83.1 inches of snow fell, the most since record-keeping began in 1905.

 

The map was developed by Alexandr Trubetskoy.

Connecticut’s All-Time Coldest Temperature: -32 Degrees

The coldest temperature ever officially recorded in the State of Connecticut is -32 degrees, which occurred on February 16, 1943, in the rural town of Falls Village, located in northwestern Connecticut, about 50 miles from Hartford.

The average Connecticut temperature is 31 degrees in December, 26 degrees in January and 28 degrees in February, records show.  That ranks the state at #30 for average temperature. If you’re wondering, Rhode Island ranks #27, New York is #28, Massachusetts is #34.  No surprise here: Hawaii is #1; Alaska is #50.

The state Department of Energy and Environmental Protection reports:

• January averages 3.5 inches of liquid precipitation; 12.3 inches of snowfall
• 14th- Daylight increasing by 1.5 minutes each day
• 16th- Record high this date 62o F in 1995; record low -8oF in 1994
• 24th- Daylight increasing by 2 minutes each day
• January 20-25 is the traditional January thaw

The coldest temperature ever officially recorded in Hartford is -26 degrees, which occurred on January 22, 1961. Weather temperatures have been officially kept in Hartford, Connecticut since 1905.  Below zero temperature readings are not at all rare in Hartford. Since 1905, the city has had 10 days when the temperature dropped below -15 degrees. Hartford averages 133 days a year when the temperature drops below freezing, according to a report published in Yahoo News.

In New Haven, the greatest chance of snow is around February 1st, according to data compiled by the website Weather Spark. It has snowed on that day 24 percent of the time since 1983. During the cold season overall, considered between December 3 to March 14, there is a 43% average chance that precipitation will be observed at some point during a given day. When precipitation does occur it is most often in the form of light snow (32% of days with precipitation have at worst light snow), light rain (28%), moderate rain (16%), and moderate snow (8%).

The difference between the all-time coldest temperature ever recorded in Hartford (-26) and the all-time coldest temperature ever recorded in the state of Connecticut (-32) is six degrees.   A difference without a distinction.

CT, NY, NJ Should Expect Unprecedented Flooding by Mid-Century, Scientists Predict

It will get worse, not better, for shoreline residents and businesses in Connecticut, New York and New Jersey within range of the Atlantic Ocean.  That’s the likely scenario based on newly completed research by a team of geoscientists who are predicting that the New Jersey shore will likely experience a sea-level rise -- about 1.5 feet by 2050 and of about 3.5 feet by 2100 – that will be 11 to 15 inches higher than the average for sea-level rise globally over the century.

That would mean that by the middle of this century, the one-in-10 year flood level at Atlantic City, for example, would exceed any flood level seen previously, including the natural disaster that was Superstorm Sandy.  The scientists suggest, based on their research, that “planners should account for rising sea levels,” noting that “where the consequences of flooding are high, prudent planning requires consideration of high-end projections” outlined in their study.

Geoscientists at Rutgers University and Tufts University base their projections in part upon an analysis of historic and modern-day records of sea-level rise in the U.S. mid-Atlantic region. Their research appears in the inaugural issue of the journal Earth's Future, published this month by the American Geophysical Union (AGU).

While much to the work centers on the New Jersey shore and The Battery in Lower Manhattan, Rutgers researcher Ken Miller told Connecticut by the Numbers that their analysis included both Montauk on Long Island and Bridgeport.  Since Connecticut lies on bedrock, Miller said, it will largely behave like The Battery in New York City.  “I believe that the projections for bedrock locations are applicable throughout Connecticut,” said Miller, a professor of earth and planetary sciences in Rutgers' School of Arts and Sciences. 

Miller collaborated in the study with colleagues Robert Kopp, Benjamin Horton and James Browning of Rutgers and Andrew Kemp of Tufts. Kemp, an assistant professor of earth and ocean sciences at Tufts since May, joined the faculty from Yale University, where he was a Postdoctoral Associate at the Yale Climate and Energy Institute (YCEI).  The new research builds upon a recent study by Kemp, Horton and others that reconstructed a 2,500-year record of sea level at the New Jersey shore. Horton is a professor of marine and coastal sciences in Rutgers' School of Environmental and Biological Sciences.

"It's clear from both the tide gauge and geological records that sea level has been rising in the mid-Atlantic region at a foot per century as a result of global average sea-level rise and the solid earth's ongoing adjustment to the end of the last ice age," Miller told Rutgers Today. "In the sands of the New Jersey coastal plain, sea level is also rising by another four inches per century because of sediment compaction -- due partly to natural forces and partly to groundwater withdrawal. But the rate of sea-level rise, globally and regionally, is increasing due to melting of ice sheets and the warming of the oceans."

The researchers suggest that “additional work is needed to integrate site-specific sea-level rise projections with storm tide statistics to guide planning decisions and investments that may have time frames of 20 years, 40 years, or longer.”  They indicate that sea-level rise in the mid-Atlantic region also results from changes in ocean dynamics. The researchers said sea-level rise could be higher -- 2.3 feet by mid-century and 5.9 feet by the end of the century -- depending on how sensitive the Gulf Stream is to warming and how fast the ice sheets melt in response to that warming.

The study found that the eight inches of climate change-related regional sea-level rise in the 20th century exposed about 83,000 additional people in New Jersey and New York City to flooding during 2012's Superstorm Sandy.  The research was supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation.

Earth’s Future, with its inaugural issue, joins AGU’s prestigious portfolio of peer-reviewed research publications, including Geophysical Research Letters and Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres. Both are ranked among the top ten most-highly cited research publications on climate change over the past decade.  The American Geophysical Union is dedicated to advancing the Earth and space sciences for the benefit of humanity through its scholarly publications, conferences, and outreach programs. AGU is a not-for-profit, professional, scientific organization representing more than 62,000 members in 144 countries.